Betting
Model Performance
Prediction accuracy and calibration analytics for the WElo model.
Model accuracy 59.0% 213 / 361 correct
Total predictions 361 settled matches with model prediction
Model beats market 10.2% 37 alpha vs 55 anti-alpha
Market accuracy 64.0% 231 / 361 correct
Accuracy over time
Rolling 50-match window accuracy
Calibration
Predicted probability vs actual win rate (favoured player). Diagonal = perfect calibration.
| Bucket | Matches | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50-0.55 | 57 | 52.5% | 43.9% | -8.7% |
| 0.55-0.60 | 64 | 57.6% | 68.8% | +11.2% |
| 0.60-0.65 | 62 | 62.6% | 53.2% | -9.4% |
| 0.65-0.70 | 36 | 67.4% | 63.9% | -3.5% |
| 0.70-0.75 | 48 | 72.7% | 64.6% | -8.1% |
| 0.75-0.80 | 33 | 77.5% | 48.5% | -29.0% |
| 0.80-0.85 | 23 | 82.4% | 69.6% | -12.9% |
| 0.85-0.90 | 27 | 87.3% | 63.0% | -24.4% |
| 0.90-0.95 | 7 | 92.0% | 85.7% | -6.3% |
| 0.95-1.00 | 3 | 96.5% | 66.7% | -29.8% |
By surface
| Surface | Total | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clay | 204 | 116 | 56.9% |
| Hard | 157 | 97 | 61.8% |
By competition
| Competition | Total | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oeiras Challenger 2026 | 29 | 17 | 58.6% |
| Jiujiang Challenger 2026 | 28 | 17 | 60.7% |
| Shymkent Challenger 2026 | 23 | 11 | 47.8% |
| Gwangju Challenger 2026 | 22 | 9 | 40.9% |
| Wuning Challenger 2026 | 22 | 16 | 72.7% |
| Cagliari Challenger 2026 | 20 | 9 | 45.0% |
| Francavilla al Mare Challenger 2026 | 19 | 12 | 63.2% |
| Mauthausen Challenger 2026 | 18 | 10 | 55.6% |
| Abidjan Challenger 2026 | 17 | 13 | 76.5% |
| Aix-en-Provence Challenger 2026 | 17 | 12 | 70.6% |
| Rome Challenger 2026 | 17 | 10 | 58.8% |
| Busan Challenger 2026 | 16 | 11 | 68.8% |
| Ostrava Challenger 2026 | 16 | 7 | 43.8% |
| Tallahassee FL Challenger 2026 | 15 | 8 | 53.3% |
| Wuxi Challenger 2026 | 15 | 9 | 60.0% |
| Santa Cruz de la Sierra Challenger 2026 | 14 | 10 | 71.4% |
| Savannah Challenger 2026 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% |
| Santos Challenger 2026 | 8 | 5 | 62.5% |
| Monza Challenger 2026 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% |
| Sarasota Challenger 2026 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% |
| Campinas Challenger 2026 | 5 | 5 | 100.0% |
| Brazzaville Challenger 2026 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% |
| Madrid Challenger 2026 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% |
| Mexico City Challenger 2026 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% |
| ATP Madrid 2026 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
Model vs market
Agreement 74.5% 269 / 361 matches
Both correct 176 model and market agree, both right
Model alpha 37 model correct, market wrong
Anti-alpha 55 market correct, model wrong
Both wrong 93 neither predicted the winner
Net alpha -18 alpha minus anti-alpha
Alpha rate -5.0% net alpha as % of all matches